Determined to kill or capture a murderous Mekong River drug lord, China's security forces considered a tactic they'd never tried before: calling a drone strike on his remote hideaway deep in the hills of Myanmar.
The attack didn't happen — the man was later captured and brought to China for trial — but the fact that authorities were considering such an option cast new light on China's unmanned aerial vehicle program, which has been quietly percolating for years and now appears to be moving into overdrive.
Chinese aerospace firms have developed dozens of drones, known also as unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs. Many have appeared at air shows and military parades, including some that bear an uncanny resemblance to the Predator, Global Hawk and Reaper models used with deadly effect by the U.S. Air Force and CIA. Analysts say that although China still trails the U.S. and Israel, the industry leaders, its technology is maturing rapidly and on the cusp of widespread use for surveillance and combat strikes.
"My sense is that China is moving into large-scale deployments of UAVs," said Ian Easton, co-author of a recent report on Chinese drones for the Project 2049 Institute security think tank.
China's move into large-scale drone deployment displays its military's growing sophistication and could challenge U.S. military dominance in the Asia-Pacific. It also could elevate the threat to neighbors with territorial disputes with Beijing, including Vietnam, Japan, India and the Philippines. China says its drones are capable of carrying bombs and missiles as well as conducting reconnaissance, potentially turning them into offensive weapons in a border conflict.
China's increased use of drones also adds to concerns about the lack of internationally recognized standards for drone attacks. The United States has widely employed drones as a means of eliminating terror suspects in Pakistan and the Arabian Peninsula.
"China is following the precedent set by the U.S. The thinking is that, 'If the U.S. can do it, so can we. They're a big country with security interests and so are we'," said Siemon Wezeman, a senior fellow at the arms transfers program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, or SIPRI.
"The justification for an attack would be that Beijing too has a responsibility for the safety of its citizens. There needs to be agreement on what the limits are," he said.
Though China claims its military posture is entirely defensive, its navy and civilian maritime services have engaged in repeated standoffs with ships from other nations in the South China and East China seas. India, meanwhile, says Chinese troops have set up camp almost 20 kilometers (12 miles) into Indian-claimed territory.
It isn't yet known exactly what China's latest drones are capable of, because, like most Chinese equipment, they remain untested in battle.
The military and associated aerospace firms have offered little information, although in an interview last month with the official Xinhua News Agency, Yang Baikui, chief designer at plane maker COSIC, said Chinese drones were closing the gap but still needed to progress in half a dozen major areas, from airframe design to digital linkups.
Executives at COSIC and drone makers ASN, Avic, and the 611 Institute declined to be interviewed by The Associated Press, citing their military links. The Defense Ministry's latest report on the status of the military released in mid-April made no mention of drones, and spokesman Yang Yujun made only the barest acknowledgement of their existence in response to a question.
"Drones are a new high-tech form of weaponry employed and used by many militaries around the world," Yang said. "China's armed forces are developing weaponry and equipment for the purpose of upholding territorial integrity, national security and world peace. It will pose no threat to any country."
Drones are already patrolling China's borders, and a navy drone was deployed to the western province of Sichuan to provide aerial surveillance following last month's deadly earthquake there.
They may also soon be appearing over China's maritime claims, including Japanese-controlled East China Sea islands that China considers its own. That could sharpen tensions in an area where Chinese and Japanese patrol boats already confront each other on a regular basis and Japan frequently scrambles fighters to tail Chinese manned aircraft.
Retired Maj. Gen. Peng Guoqian told state media in January that drones were already being used to photograph and conduct surveillance over the islands, called Diaoyu by China and Senkaku by Japan.
The Pentagon says Chinese drones could boost the effectiveness of long-range radar in monitoring activity and locating targets in the western Pacific far from the Chinese coast. Their missions could include guiding home an anti-ship ballistic missile known in military circles as a "carrier killer," the Pentagon said in its 2012 report on China's military.
Reports about the search for notorious river bandit Naw Kham, wanted for the 2011 murders of 13 Chinese sailors, offer some clues about China's plans for drones.
The head of the Chinese Public Security Ministry's anti-narcotics bureau, Liu Yuejin, was quoted by state media as saying a plan had been floated to target Naw Kham's fortified camp with a drone loaded with 20 kilograms of TNT. The type of drone wasn't mentioned.
The plan was dropped by higher-ups in favor of taking Naw Kham alive, but the revelation served as a statement of Chinese intentions and capabilities.
China began developing drones in the 1960s and is believed to have used them for reconnaissance during its brief 1979 invasion of Vietnam. The program was aided by the adaptation of foreign civilian or dual-use UAVs for military purposes, then took a leap forward with the purchase of Harpy drones from Israel. Later, U.S. opposition to Israeli upgrades on the Harpys spurred China to build its own version.
China's gains are aided by the industry's relatively low costs and short production schedule and boosted by the assembly of the country's homebuilt Beidou navigation satellite system and improved high-speed data links.
China's military is expected to field hundreds, if not thousands, of drones, although the overall size of the fleet is difficult to estimate and the U.S. will ultimately have many more.
Chinese UAVs range from simple propeller-driven models to the high-concept, stealthy Dark Sword, featuring a joined wing and tail assembly similar to the U.S. Avenger.
More than 90 percent of the Chinese drones now in service are variants on the simpler ASN-209 surveillance drone seen in navy drills and which are now being produced under license by Egypt.
Others include the Wing Loong, or Pterodactyl, which bears a striking resemblance to the U.S. Reaper and carries a brace of missiles. Chinese media reports and air show staff say it has been exported to countries in the Middle East and Central Asia, possibly the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan, at just a fraction of the Reaper's price tag of $30 million each.
Military officials in the UAE and Uzbekistan declined to comment on the reports.
Another combat drone being offered for export, the CH-4, has space for four missiles and is said to be able to fly continuously for 30 hours.
Even more ambitious is the Xiang Long BZK-005, similar to the U.S. Global Hawk. It has a reported 6,437-kilometer (4,000-mile) range and is roughly the size of a medium-size fighter jet. Deployment may be some time off, however, and a 2011 crash points to rumored problems with the guidance system.
Further developments could see China competing with world's two major drone producers, the United States and Israel, for markets in close ally Pakistan, Myanmar and other developing nations. Customers might even include Russia, which is the world's No. 2 arms exporter but has had little success making UAVs.
There are some indications China may already be exporting know-how to Pakistan, given design similarities between Chinese drones and Pakistan's Shahpar UAV, said Huw Williams, an expert on drones at Jane's Defence Weekly. However, Williams said China will likely struggle to find customers for its larger drones, given limited demand and the large number of countries developing such systems of their own.
"They're very interested in getting into this market," SIPRI's Wezeman said. "Another few years and they will have caught up."
03/05/2013 | Jeremy Hsu｜Tech news daily
The Chinese military — known as the People's Liberation Army (PLA) — envisions its drone swarms scouting out battlefields, guiding missile strikes and overwhelming opponents through sheer numbers. China's military-industrial complex has created a wide array of homegrown drones to accomplish those goals over the past decade, according to the report released by the Project 2049 Institute on March 11.
"The PLA now fields one of the world's most expansive UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] fleets," said Ian Easton and L.C. Russell Hsiao, researchers at the Project 2049 Institute and authors of the new report.
U.S. military forces still operate the largest drone fleet, with at least 679 drones in 2012, according to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies reported by the Guardian. But the new Project 2049 Institute report estimates that China had 280 military drones as of mid-2011 — a number that has likely grown since then.
Chinese military drones have already entered the frontlines of China's territorial disputes with neighboring countries such as Japan by flying maritime patrols over disputed areas. The Project 2049 Institute report warned that China could be tempted to use drones more aggressively without risking human lives, or even consider "plausibly deniable" drone attacks blamed upon mechanical failure or cyberhackers.
Chinese strategists have also discussed using swarms of drones to overwhelm the U.S. Navy's carrier groups in the unlikely possibility of a shooting war. The drones could act as decoys, use electronic warfare to jam communications and radar, guide missile strikes on carriers, fire missiles at U.S. Navy ships or dive into ships like kamikaze robots. [Video: RoboBees: Design Poses Intriguing Engineering Challenges]
"In particular, numerous authoritative studies indicate a strong emphasis on developing UAVs for locating, tracking and targeting U.S. aircraft carriers in support of long range anti-ship cruise and ballistic missile strikes," the Project 2049 Institute report says.
The report goes on to examine the state of Chinese drone technology. China is developing drones such as the rumored "Dark Sword" stealth drone that have low radar profiles to escape radar detection. It also wants to build "space" drones that could loiter at heights of 31 miles (50 kilometers) above the Earth to provide constant surveillance. (Scientists typically consider 62 miles (100 km) to mark the boundary for the edge of space.)
Chinese engineers
have even begun working on drones that have the software brains to fly in formation, do aerial refueling and takeoff and land autonomously — capabilities that the U.S. military has also developed or begun testing for its own drones.The risk of war between the U.S. and China remains low. But the report cautions that the U.S. military could prepare for the worst-case scenario by hardening its existing air bases in Asia and developing energy weapons (such as lasers) for better air and missile defense
杨宝奎总师：
军民融合打造中国无人机“国家队”
05/05/2013 |中新社
一方面，中国飞航导弹领域50多年的发展进程，为无人机研发奠定人才基础、技术基础、研发保障条件建设基础；另一方面，中国国防建设和国民经济建设也对无人机发展提出广泛而迫切的应用需求。
“因此，中国无人机事业既要大力发展，更要科学发展。”中国航天科工集团公司科技委副主任、中国飞航技术研究院无人机总设计师杨宝奎研究员接受中新社记者专访时表示，科学发展的要素之一，就是充分学习、借鉴先进发达国家无人机发展的成功、成熟经验，结合中国国情，走寓军于民、军民融合之路，打造中国无人机事业“国家队”。
无人机比例迅速增长
杨宝奎对当前世界上无人机发展现状进行综合分析评价称，美国无人机体系完备，在技术上领跑世界；欧洲无人机技术处在领先地位，发展势头强劲；以色列无人机历经多次技术考验，产品的市场声誉和信任度好；俄罗斯无人机技术基础雄厚，但现阶段发展不足，现正着手研发；以中国为代表的其他国家，国防安全和民用救灾领域对无人机的需求旺盛，正在大力发展。
他介绍说，与有人机相比，无人机有很多优点，主要包括：减少伤亡、让飞行员远离危险；降低成本，无人机没有驾驶员，一般可使机体体积与重量缩小20%-40%，研制费用较低；更加灵活，机动性更强，无人机对起飞、降落环境要求相对较低，有的类型无人机起降不需要机场跑道。
但无人机也不是十全十美，现阶段还存在可控性、可靠性较差等不足。同时，无人机与有人机之间如何共享空域、航线需要研究，面对复杂地形、恶劣天气、电子干扰、地面防空火力等如何预防？也是无人机亟待研究解决的问题。
无人机领域20多年前开始发展，在原来有人机占据主导的市场上，现阶段无人机比例迅速增长，“无人机比例今后还会扩大，再过30年左右，无人机和有人机的比例可能各占50%，达到五五开，最终可能实现无人机占据2/3的比例”。
杨宝奎认为，“虽然随着技术的发展，无人机的控制能力、导航能力、通讯能力、执行任务能力、信息化能力不断提高，但大型运输机、客机、战斗机都还需要人来操控”，未来不论军民应用市场如何发展，无人机和有人机都不会互相替代，两者将各自发挥优势，相互补充使用、共同发展。
借鉴经验不可盲目跟风
中国无人机起步比较晚，技术上与美欧还存在差距，“这是客观事实”。杨宝奎指出，中国发展无人机必须学习、借鉴先进国家的成功经验。但切忌盲目跟风，而要在学习借鉴的基础上，结合国情走军民融合和创新发展之路。
他举例介绍说，美国以“捕食者”、“全球鹰”为代表的比较高端的无人机，已成功投入阿富汗、伊拉克战场上，民用领域也有广泛应用。目前，美国还大力开展无人作战飞机方面研究，无人机正向临近空间、深空间方向发展。
作为侦察型无人机的代表作，“捕食者”已经历A、B、C等3型发展，打造出侦察打击一体化无人机平台，无人机飞行速度、生存能力、隐身能力、战术反应能力及作战灵活性等均大幅提高。“捕食者”系列无人机性能不断提升的同时，其地面测控站、控制站标准基本保持不变，通过系列化、通用化、模块化设计，达到地面系统对无人机系列化机型都能适用的效果。
“捕食者”无人机还是美军实施网络中心战的重要的一个平台，配合有人作战飞机，可实现对地、对海、对空规模打击。在此基础上，结合航母平台，美国推出可在航母上起降的X-47B无人机，具有隐身能力强，可空中加油，并搭载应用激光、微波武器。此外，美国还利用航天航空技术，研制X-37B无人空天飞行器。
“X-47B和X-37B是无人作战飞机发展趋势的一大亮点，无疑值得中国关注和学习”。杨宝奎称，技术领跑者的发展路径，对中国无人机发展的借鉴意义可归纳为3个方面：一是无人机要走螺旋式发展道路；二是无人机要向高空、高速、长航时、隐身化方向发展，提升系统和体系的作战能力；三是无人机武器配置要多样化，提升快速精确打击能力，增强战场生存能力。
打造无人机研制“国家队”
在某种意义上，飞航导弹也是无人驾驶的飞行器，二者在技术上有很多可借鉴的基础。作为中国飞航导弹“摇篮”，中国航天科工集团旗下中国飞航技术研究院从上世纪90年代初就开始从事无人机技术研究，无人机研制方面已拥有涵盖总体设计、结构、动力、控制、导航、链路、载荷等全产业链的配套体系。
杨宝奎透露，该院依托其50余年飞航导弹武器发展基础，并整合航天资源，正全力打造“海鹰”无人机产业发展平台，以推进无人装备产业向专业化、规模化、品牌化发展。
中国飞航技术研究院专门新成立海鹰航空通用装备有限责任公司，目标就是通过军民融合，打造集研制、生产、服务、经营为一体的中国无人机研制“国家队”，并面向中外军民市场，集中优势力量发展中高端无人机。同时，低端无人机也要大幅增加技术含量，实现创新发展。
“中国无人机发展方向很明确，首先就是要朝着飞行时间更长、飞行高度更高、飞行速度更快发展；其次，要向隐身无人机方向发展，使活动具有隐蔽性、攻击具有突然性，还有利于提高无人机自身的生存能力，扩大活动范围；最后，无人机要向多功能发展，实现有效载荷多样化”。
杨宝奎表示，“海鹰”中高端无人机将把侦察、打击、毁伤效果评估和目标指示四位一体相结合，并由同一类地面控制系统来完成。目前，“海鹰”已初具完备产品型谱，以WJ-600高空高速无人机为代表，包括“雀鹰/刀锋”、“腾飞/天鹰”系列固定翼无人机、“翔云”系列旋翼式无人机，并形成完整的高低速无人机、多种任务载荷相结合的侦查打击一体作战体系。
“海鹰”无人机已普遍应用于国土测绘、海洋巡查、电力巡线、气象探测、应急救援、环保监测、森林防火、警用巡逻等多个领域，并在汶川地震、玉树地震、舟曲泥石流、芦山地震等抢险救灾中发挥出重要作用。
“无人机在中国拥有旺盛的市场需求和广阔的发展前景。”杨宝奎呼吁不论是国有企业还是民营企业，国家在无人机研发方面都能给予一定的政策扶持和支持，推动国防装备、民用产品有机结合，建立健全竞争、评价和合作机制，实现军民融合、打造中高端无人机“国家队”的目标。
