The fall—the first since 1998—was driven by major spending cuts in the USA and Western and Central Europe, as well as in Australia, Canada and Japan. The reductions were, however, substantially offset by increased spending in Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America. China, the second largest spender in 2012, increased its expenditure by 7.8 per cent ($11.5 billion). Russia, the third largest spender, increased its expenditure by 16 per cent ($12.3 billion).
Despite the drop, the global total was still higher in real terms than the peak near the end of the cold war.
‘We are seeing what may be the beginning of a shift in the balance of world military spending from the rich Western countries to emerging regions, as austerity policies and the drawdown in Afghanistan reduce spending in the former, while economic growth funds continuing increases elsewhere,’ said Dr Sam Perlo-Freeman, Director of SIPRI’s Military Expenditure and Arms Production Programme. ‘However, the USA and its allies are still responsible for the great majority of world military spending. The NATO members together spent a trillion dollars.
The USA: wars ending, cuts biting
In 2012 the USA’s share of world military spending went below 40 per cent for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union. A declining trend that began in 2011 accelerated in 2012, with a drop in US military spending of 6 per cent in real terms to $682 billion.
The decline is mostly the result of reduced war spending, which fell from $159 billion in FY 2011 to $115 billion in FY 2012, and is set to continue its downward course, with only $87 billion requested for 2013.
US military spending in 2012 was also projected to be $15 billion lower than previously planned as a result of cuts to the Department of Defense linked to the 2011 Budget Control Act. The bulk of cuts under this legislation will begin in 2013.
A wider slowdown
Austerity policies also caused falls in military spending in most of Europe in 2012. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, 18 of the 31 countries in the European Union or European NATO have cut military spending by more than 10 per cent in real terms.
Even in those parts of the world where spending has increased, the effects of the economic crisis can still be seen: slowing economic growth in emerging regions has led to slower rates of growth in military spending. Only the Middle East and North Africa increased their rate of military spending between 2003–2009 and 2009–2012.
The average annual rate of military spending increase in Asia, for instance, has halved from 7.0 per cent per year in 2003–2009, to 3.4 per cent per year in 2009–2012. The slow-down was most dramatic in Central and South Asia, where military spending was growing by an average of 8 per cent per year in 2003–2009, but by only 0.7 per cent a year since 2009, and actually fell in 2012, by 1.6 per cent.
‘All the indications are that world military spending is likely to keep falling for the next two to three years—at least until NATO completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan at the end of 2014,’ said Dr Perlo-Freeman, ‘However, spending in emerging regions will probably go on rising, so the world total will probably bottom out after that.
Even in those parts of the world where spending has increased, the effects of the economic crisis can still be seen: slowing economic growth in emerging regions has led to slower rates of growth in military spending. Only the Middle East and North Africa increased their rate of military spending between 2003–2009 and 2009–2012.
The average annual rate of military spending increase in Asia, for instance, has halved from 7.0 per cent per year in 2003–2009, to 3.4 per cent per year in 2009–2012. The slow-down was most dramatic in Central and South Asia, where military spending was growing by an average of 8 per cent per year in 2003–2009, but by only 0.7 per cent a year since 2009, and actually fell in 2012, by 1.6 per cent.
‘All the indications are that world military spending is likely to keep falling for the next two to three years—at least until NATO completes its withdrawal from Afghanistan at the end of 2014,’ said Dr Perlo-Freeman, ‘However, spending in emerging regions will probably go on rising, so the world total will probably bottom out after that.
Notable regional developments
- Military expenditure in Asia and Oceania rose by 3.3 per cent in 2012. Large increases were seen in Viet Nam, where tensions with China are prompting major naval purchases, and in Indonesia. Spending in India decreased by 2.8 per cent.
- Military spending increased sharply across North Africa, by 7.8 per cent in real terms, the result of both ongoing military modernization and concern over terrorist groups in the Sahel. Military spending in sub-Saharan Africa fell by 3.2 per cent.
- Military spending in the Middle East rose by 8.4 per cent rise in 2012. The largest percentage increase worldwide in 2012 was by Oman (a 51 per cent rise). Saudi Arabia also increased spending by 12 per cent. Spending by Iran, Qatar, Syria and the United Arab Emirates is unknown.
- In Latin America military spending increased by 4.2 per cent in 2012. The largest increases were by Paraguay (43 per cent) and Venezuela (42 per cent). The increasing role of the military in combating drug cartels pushed Mexico’s spending up by 9.7 per cent.
- Military spending in Eastern Europe increased by 15.3 per cent in 2012, the largest regional increase. Besides Russia, Ukraine also increased its spending substantially—by 24 per cent.
* All percentage increases and decreases are expressed in real terms (constant 2011 prices).
For editors
SIPRI’s research on military spending monitors developments in military expenditure worldwide and maintains the most comprehensive, consistent and extensive data source available on military expenditure. Military expenditure refers to all government spending on current military forces and activities, including salaries and benefits, operational expenses, arms and equipment purchases, military construction, research and development, and central administration, command and support. SIPRI therefore discourages the use of terms such as ‘arms spending’ when referring to military expenditure, as spending on armaments is usually only a minority of the total.
预测中国到2025年将拥有世界最强国防工业
18/04/2013 | 环球网
据俄罗斯《真理报》4月16日报道，根据瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所近日公布的专题研究报告，2012年世界军事支出实现了15年来的首次减少，同比下降0.5%，美国的比例自苏联解体以来首次降到40%以下，俄罗斯和中国军费有所增加，跻身三强。
瑞典智库统计的军事支出数字，主要包括武装力量维持费用，比如军事演习费用、军人工资或补贴、其他方面的人员支出、武器装备使用费、武器和设备采购费、军事建设、科研和武器研发费用，以及行政支出等。总体而言，2012年世界各国军事支出总计17530亿美元，占世界GDP总和的2.5%。
瑞典智库还公布了军事预算最高的15个国家的名单。高居首位的依然是美国，为6820亿美元，占美国GDP的4.4%。中国位居第二，为1660亿美元，占GDP的2%。俄罗斯第三，为907亿美元，占GDP的4.4%。在中国和俄罗斯方面使用的是估测数据，在美国方面则是官方统计数据。英国排名第四，为608亿美元，占GDP的2.5%。日本排名第五，为593亿美元，占GDP的1.0%。世界五强国家军费总和为10600亿美元，占世界军事支出的60%。之后排名第6至第15的国家依次是法国(589亿美元)、沙特(567亿美元)、印度(461亿美元)、德国(458亿美元)、意大利(340亿美元)、巴西(331亿美元)、韩国(317亿美元)、澳大利亚(262亿美元)、加拿大(225亿美元)、土耳其(182亿美元)。全部15国军费总和为14300亿美元，占世界军事支出的82%。
俄媒称，美国军事支出在绝对数字方面继续大幅领先，而且超过了排名紧随其后的10个国家的军费总和。尽管2012年美国军事预算下降了6%，但是仍比2001年开始发动全球反恐战争以来的指标高出69%。与美国不同，中国和俄罗斯在报告期内的军事支出增幅分别只有7.8%和16%，而且与2003年相比，两国军费占GDP的比例保持不变，美国的相应指标却在不断增加，已由3.7%增加到4.4%。因此指责俄罗斯和中国挑起军备竞赛是不合适的。
美国军事支出步伐放缓甚至下滑，与经济滑坡、预算削减和减少阿富汗军事行动有关。美国在北约的盟国同样如此。根据瑞典智库的专家预测，美国在世界军事支出中的比例今后还将进一步下降，特别是在北约军队撤离阿富汗之后。在军费占GDP的比例方面，沙特高居世界第一，为8.9%，美国和俄罗斯并列第二，为4.4%，其余国家的指标要小得多。中国仅为2%，不到美俄的二分之一。美国军费在世界军事支出中的比例已经降至32%，中国升至9.5%。俄罗斯为5.2%。
俄媒称，俄罗斯和中国军队面临类似的任务，必须实现本国军队武器装备的更新换代，因此俄中两国军费增加有其客观原因。俄罗斯现代化的武器装备比例到2014年底将达到53%。根据2020年前国家武器装备更新换代计划，相应的任务是使新一代武器装备的比例增加到70%，为此拨款20万亿卢布，约合6890亿美元。
根据美国国家情报委员会2008年的预测，中国到2025年将会拥有世界上最强大的国防工业系统。这是一项长期计划，是中国梦的一部分，其实质在于维护国家主权利益，挑战西方在亚洲和亚太地区的战略主导地位。另外，中国和日本、越南、菲律宾在东海、南海的领土争端还将继续。中国制定了宏伟的计划来完善战略力量，包括增强核潜艇部队实力，研制战略轰炸机。今后10年中国应当拥有完全符合要求的第5代歼击机和航母，包括与俄罗斯联合研发的产品。根据美国环球透视组织的预测数据，中国军事预算从2011年到2015年将增加一倍，超过亚太地区其他所有国家国防支出的总和。但是，中国的军费支出显然还远远达不到美国的地步，尽管美中军费比值已经从2003年的7：1降低到2012年的4：1。瑞典智库专家弗里曼强调指出，与此同时，美中军队之间的质量差距仍然非常大，大得令人难以置信。比如美国拥有11艘航母，而中国只有一艘，还是刚刚服役的教练舰。中国需要时间，在增加数量指标的同时，尽量实现质量上的变化。
美国和北约武装力量早已多次参加具体的军事冲突，不需要实现武器装备的更新换代。对他们来说，苏联威胁已经成为过去，俄罗斯威胁基本不存在，所谓的中国威胁刚刚出现在地平线上。因此，美国计划在2013年进一步削减军事预算，准备减少870亿美元。计划到2017年削减2590亿美元，在今后10年总共削减4870亿美元。美国计划重点打造一支更加紧凑、装备更加精良的武装力量。美国减少军事支出，还有其他原因，比如世界各国进口美国先进武器装备的规模降低，比如洛马公司生产的JSF联合打击战斗机，相关交易曾经涉及到意大利、加拿大、荷兰。现在许多国家纷纷修改预算方案，严格节约预算资金，采购稍微便宜一些的武器装备。在37个欧洲国家中，有20个国家大幅削减军费，只有德国和乌克兰例外。
在其他世界性趋势当中，可以发现中东地区国家的军费在持续增加，平均增幅8.4%，其中阿曼增幅高达51%，沙特增长12%，卡塔尔增长10%。在亚洲地区，随着中国军事实力的增强，相邻国家纷纷采购先进武器装备，争取实现军事现代化，其中越南最为明显，越南军费在2003-2012年间增加了130%，印尼增加了73%。
