China became the world’s biggest trader in goods for the first time last year, overtaking the US for all of 2013 and finishing the year with record trade figures in December.
Coming fast on the heels of China taking over as the world’s largest oil importer, the shift is another milestone as the country takes its place among the world’s most powerful nations. Trade with the rest of Asia and increasing flows with the Middle East represent a shift in power away from the US, still the world’s largest economy.
The total value
of China’s imports and exports in 2013 was $4.16tn, a 7.6 per cent increase
from a year earlier on a renminbi-adjusted basis, according to figures released
by the Chinese government on Friday.
The US will
release its full-year figures in February but its total imports and exports of
goods amounted to $3.57tn in the 11 months from January to November 2013,
making it a virtual certainty that China is now the world’s biggest goods
trading nation.
Some historians
argue China was the world’s largest trading nation during the Qing dynasty –
which lasted from 1644-1912 – despite the ambivalence of Chinese emperors
toward foreign trade.
“This is a
landmark milestone for our nation’s foreign trade development,” said Zheng
Yuesheng, chief statistician of the customs administration.
Mr Zheng said he
expected a stronger showing in 2014, thanks to an improving world economy, the
impact of structural reforms in China and a lowered outlook for commodity
prices, which would help offset rising costs of labour and financing for
Chinese manufacturers.
But there were
also a few clouds on the horizon - namely, a decline in foreign investment in
the manufacturing sector, and markedly slower growth in components brought to
China to be assembled and re-exported. “We all know that one characteristic of
the processing trade is to first import then export, so lower growth in
processing imports shows that in the near future, the outlook for processing
exports is not too optimistic,” Mr Zheng added.
About a third of
China’s trade involves assembly and re-export of components produced elsewhere,
although that is rapidly dwindling as industries including automobiles and
electronics move their entire supply chain to China.
China’s official
figures show the processing trade made up 32.6 percent of total imports and
exports in 2013, a drop from 34.8 percent the year before.
According to the
World Trade Organisation, the total value of China’s goods trade in 2012
trailed the US figure by a mere $15bn, or roughly a day and a half of China’s
average daily trade value in 2012.
China’s rise to
dominance of world trade has happened over a very short period, with the value
of Chinese trade roughly doubling every four years over the past three decades.
The country
became the world’s biggest goods exporter in 2009 and Chinese imports and
exports now account for more than 10 per cent of global goods trade, up from
just 3 per cent in 2000.
There has also
been an enormous shift in the kinds of things China exports –
from textiles, apparel and oil products to high-tech machinery and electronics.
In December,
Chinese trade reached a record monthly high of $390bn, with exports increasing
4.3 per cent from a year earlier to $208bn and imports up 8.3 per cent from the
same month in 2013 to $182bn.
For the full
year, exports totalled $2.21tn, an increase of 7.9 per cent on a
renminbi-adjusted basis. That narrowly missed a target of 8 per cent full-year
export growth set at the start of 2013 by the Chinese government.
Imports rose 7.3
per cent from a year earlier to reach $1.95tn in 2013.
The country’s
trade surplus widened 12.8 per cent to $260bn as exports to its largest
traditional markets in the US and Europe recovered.
Total US exports
were up 5.2 per cent in the first 11 months of last year, led by rising sales
to China, which expanded 8.7 per cent from the same period a year earlier.
The US still has
a big lead over China when it comes to trade in services. China’s trade in
services in 2012 was about $471bn, less than half of the US figure of $1.07tn.
The Chinese
government itself has expressed some concern about Chinese trade
data in late 2012 and early 2013. Statistics officials have
acknowledged that during that period export numbers in particular were
distorted by a huge amount of fake invoicing by companies and individuals
evading China’s strict capital controls to move cash in and particularly out of
the country.
That will
probably lower growth figures for the first months of this year.
“We should be
prepared for a period of low headline year-on-year export growth due largely to
the faked exports data between December 2012 and April 2013,” said Lu Ting,
China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Iron ore imports
grow
It was a single
cargo of iron ore arriving in Shandong Province on December 19 that pushed
China’s total trade for 2014 over the milestone $400bn mark, turning the nation
into the world’s largest trader of goods for the first time in centuries.
The strength of
Chinese iron ore demand confounded analysts last year, with 2013 imports rising
10 per cent year on year to 820m tonnes, as steel mills defied expectations
with an 8 per cent rise in output, according to estimates by the state-backed
industry association.
“Consensus
expectations for Chinese steel demand and production are too low,” said
Christopher LaFemina of investment bank Jefferies, who argued that China’s
steel production would not peak for another decade due to continued demand from
growing cities.
“中国货贸”加宽加厚“中国道路”
04/03/2014｜鲁宁｜观察者网
这个双休日，中国取代美国成为世界第一货物贸易大国的喜讯传遍全球。对于横竖对祖国不满的少数人，这一喜讯令他们再添郁闷。对于还在梦呓国家崩溃的极少数人，这一喜讯让他们再生闷气。
最近百年间，世界第一货物贸易大国的桂冠始终属于美国。2013年，中国货物贸易4.16万亿美元，超过美国约2500亿美元。由于数据来自世界贸易组织（WTO）秘书处的初步统计而非中国商务部，国内外均无人有勇气站出来公开质疑数据的真实性。
4.16万亿美元占去年全球货物贸易总量的11.1%。打个形象比方，全世界200多个国家和地区，去年若总共做成100元生意，那么其中的“中国生意”就超过了11元。
若将4.16万亿美元乘以6，它大约是25万亿元人民币。去年中国年GDP大数是56万亿元人民币，4.16万亿美元相当于GDP的45%，构成中国经济现实的外贸依存度。
4.16万亿美元中，中国出口2.21万亿美元，约相当于去年中国GDP的24%。换个说法，中国眼下每生产百元产品，其中有24元用于外销。2.21万亿美元的货物出口为国家创造了1.5亿只中国饭碗。如若算上直接和间接从事贸易流通的3000万只饭碗，大约有1.8亿中国劳动者依靠“中国货贸”生存和发展。
吐得出去吞得进来的生意才可持续，是为做生意之良性循环。4.16万亿美元中，中国进口1.95万亿美元，为中国200余个外贸伙伴国年创“外国饭碗”数千万只。
“生意”从来就是国家关系的粘合剂。中国已成120余个国家第一贸易伙伴国的最新事实，就是由“中国货贸”派生和溢出的“政治效应”。多少年了，少数国人一根经充当西方敌对势力传声筒，一向嘲讽自己的祖国在世界上缺乏朋友，“第一贸易伙伴”虽往往只被视为生意朋友，但却已成为忌讳随便与中国翻脸、远远超出生意本身、具有不可替代或很难被轻易替代的对华关系之代名词，包括欧盟、美国乃至日本……
1978年中国货物贸易总量才区区206亿美元，在全球排32位，占全球贸易的份额难以启齿。2013年，数字跃升至4.16万亿美元，排名全球第一，份额占全球的11.1%——35年弹指一挥间！
35年前，中国货物贸易一概须以美元结算。35年后，人民币成为直接结算货币咄咄逼人，已被欧盟欣然接受，英、法、德为争抢人民币离岸结算中心明争暗斗互不相让，美国迄今看似不以为然，但美元已明显感受到了人民币吹起的持续“寒意”。
2001年底中国入世，很大程度上是被美国与欧盟逼的。入世谈判十数年一拖再拖，很大程度上是被中国拖的。美欧逼，那是因为想逼迫中国彻底开放市场挤垮中国；中国拖，那是对入世带来的市场冲击作何应对缺乏经验与自信。然而，实践和实绩铸就了中国的自信！2002年是中国入世元年，至2007年短短6年间，中国货物贸易之和超过前23年总和。这是足以让亿万国人自豪提气的自信！可在某些学者的嘴里和笔下，这是“血汗工厂”和“高耗低质”的堆砌。
2008年秋，美国雷曼兄弟公司引爆全球金融危机，国内国外都有人欲看中国大笑话。可是，就在金融危机最严重的2009年，全球货物贸易总量下降了12.9%，中国货物贸易却“逆势”增长了2.9%。而就在这一年，中国货物贸易量占全球的份额“不降反扩”。2009年至去年，全球货物贸易依然没有完全恢复元气，但中国货物贸易的全球份额始终保持“逆势”扩大态势，就在去年，“中国份额”又扩大了0.6个百分点。
低档次和地摊货曾经是中国货物贸易的代名词。西方敌对势力嫉恨中国的发展，执意抹黑中国可以理解，某些国人跟着起哄连国外研究中国货物贸易的学者都替他们害臊和不解。2011年中国入世满十年，当年，纺织、服装、鞋类、玩具、塑料制品、家具、箱包七大类劳动密集型产品出口3858亿美元（占比20.3%），机电产品出口10856亿美元（占比57.2%）。十年间，前者占比降，后者占比升，支撑起中国货物贸易结构优化的客观事实！
实现“中国货贸”从以量取胜到以质取胜的转型，我们国家尚有漫长的征途需要跨越。举个例子，去年2.21万亿美元的出口中，类似飞机、成套发电装备、成套通讯装备、高端动车装备之类的高质量高利润中国出口大约只占到2000亿美元……
老实说，2000亿美元就足以让国人为之自豪，问题是许多国人看待数字往往人云亦云。更要纠正一种已根深蒂固的认知偏见——那就是，受我们的国情所决定，中国的外贸之路一定是量与质的两条腿走路，而不是片面为追求高端高质而盲目放弃低端与中端。须知大量的低端与中端，对应的正是庞大劳动人口的饭碗问题；高端高质主要是解决赚钱的问题，继而收获中国与贸易伙伴国关系的诸多边际效益问题。时至今日，仍有少数国人一个劲鼓噪放弃低端压缩中端，好在从习大大到“克强经济学”再到各级政府，均对此保持着异常清醒，均在坚持二者的平衡发展。
需要辨别的是，货物贸易不是全球贸易之全部。货物贸易全球第一更不代表中国在全球贸易排名中已处于第一。没有纳入传统统计口径的是服务贸易——迄今，绝大多数国家统计对服务贸易仍实行“计划单列”。
我国是服务贸易之新手。别说上世纪末，就是入世之初，绝大多数国人对服务贸易缺乏基本概念，时至今日，对服务贸易略知一二的国人仍系少数之少数。
美国既是货物贸易强国，亦是全球服务贸易领头羊。服务贸易听起来抽象，换个说法，美国大片进口到中国，就是美国对中国的服务贸易。美国四大会计师事务所尽管名声已很臭，但它们迄今尚能在中国上市企业会计服务市场占据较大份额，也叫对华服务贸易。顾名思义，服务贸易在很大程度上就是国家的“软实力贸易”。可也就短短十来年时间，中国服务贸易从无到有，不但总体实现了“量”的高速递进，甚至在某些服务类别实现了对美国“量”的超越。中国有个绝大多数国家缺乏的特点，认定要做成什么大事，一旦国家层面下了决心，后来居上往往只是时间问题。
2012年中国服务贸易总量4706亿美元，2013年5400亿美元，今年尚不可知，但2015年规划实现6000亿美元肯定过于保守了。国家大了，国人每人哪怕只喝上一口水，那水就得用水库来装。若与全球货物贸易总量比，眼下全球服务贸易总量大体相当于货物贸易的20%，中国去年自己比自己，占比还只有11.5%，不光远落后于美国和欧盟，离世界平均水平都差了一大截。若算绝对量，去年还差美国5900亿美元。但没有哪个国家，尤其是美国与欧盟，还敢再小瞧中国急起直追的扎实步履。
最近数年间，“贸易停滞论”也是唱衰中国的曲调之一。可光一个服务贸易的发展态势，中国贸易可供的“膨胀”的空间就大到令人不敢想象。全球金融危机后，贸易摩擦被中外舆论视为中国发展对外贸易的新三座大山之一。摩擦乃至赤裸裸的贸易保护譬如美欧对中国某些出口产品的打压有没有？当然有！有些还性质特别恶劣，手段极为卑鄙。然而，摩擦的危害性亦被舆论有意无意放大了。就说去年，各类摩擦和保护共涉及中国出口36亿美元，相对于中国2.21万亿美元的出口总额，占比不到千分之二，战略上完全可以忽略不计，至多在战术上予以重视就成。
从建国到1977年，毛泽东领导国家打下了门类齐全的国家工业化基础。1978年国家走上了改革开放道路。前28年加后35年，日渐清晰并初步成型的“中国道路”，为“中国货贸”覆盖全球并在数量上占据全球第一打下了坚实的制度基础。与时同时，“中国货贸”则不断加宽加厚着“中国道路”，这是一种难得的良性循环。展望未来十年，祖国成为全球包括服务贸易在内的贸易强国完全可以提前期许。到那时，中国制造、中国服务、中国创造将与中国定价相伴相随。
