Substitute the
United States for the United Kingdom, and China for Germany, and the parallels
are fairly clear.
“The leading power
of the age is in relative decline, beset by political crisis at home and by
steadily eroding economic prowess,” Mr. Emmerson writes in “Eve of Disaster,” a
piece in Foreign Policy magazine.
“Rising powers are
jostling for position in the four corners of the world, some seeking a new
place for themselves within the current global order, others questioning its
very legitimacy. Democracy and despotism are locked in uneasy competition.
“A world economy
is interconnected as never before by flows of money, trade, and people, and by
the unprecedented spread of new, distance-destroying technologies. A global
society, perhaps even a global moral consciousness, is emerging as a result.
Small-town America rails at the excessive power of Wall Street. Asia is rising
once again. And, yes, there’s trouble in the Middle East,” he writes, asking:
“Sound familiar?”
Yes, perhaps
especially in Asia, where the rise of China is being felt strongly.
Consider this: In
Hong Kong over the weekend, Shotaro Yachi, the foreign policy adviser to the
Japanese prime minister, accused China of “breaching
the rule of international order” (his remarks were delivered by a former
Japanese official, Takujiro Hamada, The South China Morning Post reported).
“You will be a
superpower — much feared but not much liked,” Mr. Yachi warned China at the
third Sino-U.S. Colloquium, organized by the China Energy Fund Committee.
China is asserting
territorial claims by force, said Mr. Yachi, referring to Beijing’s actions at
the Diaoyu Islands, which Japan calls the Senkakus and which are claimed by
China, Japan and Taiwan.
“I should like to
ask you: Is this a China you want to show to the world?” he said. “Is this a
China that your children will be proud of?”
A retired People’s
Liberation Army major general, Pan Zhenqiang, now an adviser to the Chinese
government, characterized Mr. Yachi’s statement as “very rude and arrogant” and
warned Tokyo to treat China as an enemy at its peril, The Post reported.
Jostling nations,
a shifting global order: sound familiar?
Deeply involved in
the quarrel is the United States, which has a security treaty with Japan.
On Sunday, China
harshly criticized the U.S. secretary of state, Hillary Rodham Clinton, for
presenting what it said was a
distorted picture of its dispute with Japan over the islands in the
East China Sea, as my colleague Jane Perlez wrote.
In Asia, the
escalation is, arguably, increasingly reflected in national politics, with the
December election of Japan’s nationalist and conservative prime minister,
Shinzo Abe, a sign of a rightward swing driven at least in part by fear of
China, analysts say.
In fact, China’s
rise is “distorting” domestic politics among its neighbors, including Japan,
South Korea and Taiwan, as they respond to its growing challenge, said Mark
Harrison, a politics and culture specialist at the University of Tasmania.
In Japan, “a
dimension of the right-wing resurgence is due to anxiety about China,” Mr.
Harrison said in a telephone interview.
Just how far that
resurgence is going needs to be noted. Consider the following pieces of
information about Mr. Abe’s conservative cabinet, according to The
Economist. Each is guaranteed to infuriate other Asian countries with memories
of Japan’s World War II brutality in the region, amid feelings in some quarters
that Japan never really apologized enough.
“Fourteen in the
cabinet belong to the League for Going to Worship Together at Yasukuni, a
controversial Tokyo shrine that honors leaders executed for war crimes,” The
Economist notes. “Thirteen support Nihon Kaigi, a nationalist think-tank that
advocates a return to ‘traditional values’ and rejects Japan’s ‘apology
diplomacy’ for its wartime misdeeds. Nine belong to a parliamentary association
that wants the teaching of history in schools to give a better gloss to Japan’s
militarist era.”
Sound familiar?
In his essay, Mr.
Emmerson notes that “the United States in 2013 may not be a perfect analogue
for Britain in 1913 (nor China in 2013 a perfect analogue for Germany in
1913).” But, he says, “The world of 1913 — brilliant, dynamic, interdependent —
offers a warning.”
“In 2013, at a
time of similar global flux, the biggest mistake we could possibly make is to
assume that the operating system of our own world will continue indefinitely,
that all we need to do is stroll into the future, and that the future will
inevitably be what we want it to be,” he writes. “Those comforting times are
over. We need to prepare ourselves for a much rougher ride ahead.”
美报：2013年是新的1913年吗？
作者：2013年2月7日财经国家新闻网翻譯
美国《国际先驱论坛报》网站日前发表记者迪迪·柯尔丝滕·塔特洛的一篇文章，题为《2013年是新的1913年吗？》，全文如下：
这是一个争议性话题———也是一个令人困扰的话题。英国皇家国际事务研究所的高级研究员查尔斯·埃默森撰文称，2013年的世界“阴森森地”呈现出1913年时世界的样子。
用美国替代当时的英国，用中国替代当时的德国，这种相似性便一目了然。埃默森在发表于《外交政策》杂志上的《灾难前夕》一文中写道：“受到国内政治危机以及经济实力持续减弱的困扰，这个时代最主要的大国处在相对衰落之中。新兴大国正在世界各地争夺势力范围，有些新兴国家寻求在现行全球秩序下获得新的地位，另一些国家则质疑现行秩序的合法性。民主和专制陷入了令人尴尬的对抗。”
他在文中写道：“世界经济从未像现在这样因为资金、贸易和人员的流动，以及让距离不再遥远的前所未有的新技术而互联在一起。结果，一个全球性社会，也许是一种全球性的道德意识，正在出现。小镇上的美国人对华尔街的过度权力深恶痛绝。亚洲正在再次崛起。而中东则有了麻烦。”他随后发问道：“觉得似曾相识吧？”
是的，也许亚洲的情况尤其是这样。在那里，中国的崛起让人感觉强烈。
看下面的例子：日本首相的外交政策顾问谷内正太郎周末在香港指责中国“违反国际游戏规则”（据香港《南华早报》报道，他的书面讲话是由前日本外务省官员滨田卓二郎代为宣读的）。谷内在中华能源基金委员会主办的第三届“中美对话”讨论会上警告中国说：“你们将成为超级大国———人们多半对此感到害怕、而不是表示欢迎。”
谷内表示，中国正在以武力宣示领土诉求———他指的是北京在钓鱼岛海域的行动。在日本，这一群岛被称为尖阁诸岛。中国、日本和台湾都对这些岛屿存在领土要求。谷内在发言稿中说：“我想问：这是你们希望向世界展示的中国吗？这是你们希望子孙后代引以为豪的中国吗？”
《南华早报》报道说，解放军退役少将潘振强认为谷内的言论“非常粗暴、狂妄”，并警告东京不要冒险与中国为敌。你争我夺的国家，变化中的全球秩序，觉得有些似曾相识吧？被深深卷入这场争执的是美国，它与日本签有安全条约。据我的同事报道说，中国在周日严辞批评了其所谓的美国国务卿希拉里在中日东海岛屿争端问题上“罔顾事实”的言论。
分析家表示，在亚洲，这种紧张关系的升级可以说越来越多地反映了国内政治，其中日本民族主义的保守派首相安倍晋三在去年12月份的当选就是日本政治气氛转向右倾的一个迹象———这种转变在一定程度受到了对中国的恐惧的驱使。
澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚大学研究政治学与文化的专家马克·哈里森说，确实，中国的崛起正在扰乱包括日本、韩国、台湾等邻国或地区的内部政治，因为它们需要应对中国造成的日益巨大的挑战。他在接受电话采访时说，日本“右翼复活的一个原因是对中国的焦虑”。
对于右翼的这次卷土重来能走多远需要加以关注。考虑一下《经济学家》杂志报道的下面几则有关安倍保守派内阁的消息。在某些地方的人们认为日本从未进行过具有足够诚意的道歉的背景下，每一则这样的消息都肯定会激怒对于日本二战暴行记忆犹新的其他亚洲国家。
《经济学家》指出：“有14名内阁成员属于‘大家一起来参拜靖国神社联盟’———靖国神社是东京一个供奉被处决战犯灵位的有争议的神庙。有13名内阁成员力挺民族主义智库‘日本会议’，该智库倡导回归‘传统价值’，拒绝日本在战时罪行问题上的‘道歉外交’。有9名内阁成员属于一个希望学校历史教学对日本军国主义时期进行更多粉饰的议会团体。”
觉得似曾相识吧？埃默森在他的文章中指出，把2013年的美国比作1913年的英国也许不是十分贴切（同样，把2013年的中国比作1913年的德国也是如此）。但是他表示，“1913年的那个辉煌、充满变数和互相依存的世界成为一种提醒”。
他写道：“在2013年，当相似的全球浪潮涌现的时候，我们可能犯下的最大错误就是误以为我们所处世界的操作系统将无限期地持续下去，误以为我需要做的一切就是悠闲地等待未来降临，误以为未来将肯定是我们所希望的样子。那些令人鼓舞的时代已经过去。我们需要准备迎接今后艰难得多的旅程。”
