《经济学人》16日于网站刊登一篇关于台湾政治的文章,标题写着“Ma the bumbler:A former heart-throb loses his shine”(笨蛋马英九:前万人迷光环尽失),指出马英九主政近5年来,由于经常政策反复,且缺乏决断,使他从“振奋人心”沦为“光华尽失”。17日上架的最新一期《经济学人》周刊实体版也刊登此文。
《经济学人》的报道摘编如下:
这篇《Ma the bumbler》报道开篇指出,当马英九于2008年首度当选总统时,曾让台湾民众寄予厚望,台湾经济新一页将徐徐展开。他当时承诺,与中国大陆达成突破性协议,以结束台湾经济日益边缘化的状况。此时马英九的形象是一位清廉的技术官员,能超脱所属国民党的用人唯亲陋习及内斗。与性格火爆且主张“台独”、如今身陷囹圄的前对手陈水扁两相对照,他广受欢迎。
满意度剧降至空前低点
但5年之后,马英九满意度明显暴跌。尽管他在10个月之前顺利当选连任,但已今非昔比。尤其引人注意者,依据台湾TVBS民调中心的数据,台湾民众对马英九的满意度已剧降到13%的空前低点。台湾民众似乎有一共识:马英九是一位笨拙的「无能总统」 (ineffectual bumbler)。
文中钜细靡遗列举台湾民众的生活困境。该文认为,尽管大环境不佳是富裕经济体相同的困境,但“马先生的领导难辞其咎,他无法描绘出更具希望的未来…更有甚者,为了回应反对党或媒体批评,他的政策常朝令夕改,均显现他优柔寡断的性格。”
今年6月,马英九提出油电双涨政策,引爆第一波的民众怒潮。很少台湾人了解他为什么要这样做(尽管台电每年亏损数十亿美元),面对民意的愤怒反弹,马英九宣布12月的第二波电价调整缓涨(明年再说)。
每当马英九想讨好本省族群的支持者,总是会引起外省族群的反弹。最近,退休军公教的年终慰问金问题再度引爆民众的怒火。行政院宣布有意删削逾300万美元( 约9000万台币)的年终慰问金支出,受影响的军公教高达38万1000人。台湾的社保可能在20年内破产,也令台湾人忧心忡忡,但是为避免民意探底,马英九又无法下决心大幅调社保费。
国民党的门面已出现裂痕
国民党的门面已出现裂痕。最近连胜文便批评马英九的经济政策,指出值此经济成长迟滞之际,任何现任官员顶多只是“丐帮帮主”而已。
经济发展不如预期,633跳票,结果拿军公教人员开刀,令国民党的铁杆支持者——退伍军人扬言抗争。
而在这之前更爆发马的爱将“行政院”秘书长林益世贪渎数千万,重创马英九引以为傲的清廉形象。
他的信誉却如江河日下
文章最后强调,虽然距下次选举还有4年,而有意争取“总统”大位者并不急着将他撵下台,甚至不愿锋芒盖过他。他们毕竟不愿为台湾的经济问题承担责任。目前并无迹象显示马英九的主要政策将会改变(或应该改变),然而他的信誉却如江河日下。
《经济学人》的原文报道:
WHEN he was first elected in 2008, Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, offered Taiwanese high hopes that the island’s economy would open a new chapter. He promised ground-breaking agreements with China to help end Taiwan’s growing economic marginalisation. At the time, Mr Ma’s image was of a clean technocrat able to rise above the cronyism and infighting of his party, the Kuomintang (KMT). He was a welcome contrast to his fiery and pro-independence predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, now in jail for corruption.
WHEN he was first elected in 2008, Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, offered Taiwanese high hopes that the island’s economy would open a new chapter. He promised ground-breaking agreements with China to help end Taiwan’s growing economic marginalisation. At the time, Mr Ma’s image was of a clean technocrat able to rise above the cronyism and infighting of his party, the Kuomintang (KMT). He was a welcome contrast to his fiery and pro-independence predecessor, Chen Shui-bian, now in jail for corruption.
Five years on, and despite being handily re-elected ten months ago, much has changed. In particular, popular satisfaction with Mr Ma has plummeted, to a record low of 13%, according to the TVBS Poll Centre. The country appears to agree on one thing: Mr Ma is an ineffectual bumbler.
Ordinary people do not find their livelihoods improving. Salaries have stagnated for a decade. The most visible impact of more open ties with China, which include a free-trade agreement, has been property speculation in anticipation of a flood of mainland money. Housing in former working-class areas on the edge of Taipei, the capital, now costs up to 40 times the average annual wage of $15,400. The number of families below the poverty line has leapt. Labour activists have taken to pelting the presidential office with eggs.
Exports account for 70% of GDP. So some of Taiwan’s problems are down to the dismal state of rich-world economies. Yet Mr Ma’s leadership is also to blame. He has failed to paint a more hopeful future, with sometimes hard measures needed now. Worse, he frequently tweaks policies in response to opposition or media criticism. It suggests indecisiveness.
Public anger first arose in June, when Mr Ma raised the price of government-subsidised electricity. Few Taiwanese understood why, even though Taiwan’s state-owned power company loses billions. In the face of public outrage, Mr Ma postponed a second round of electricity price rises scheduled for December. They will now take place later next year.
People are also worried that a national pension scheme is on course for bankruptcy in less than two decades. Yet Mr Ma cannot bring himself to raise premiums sharply, because of the temporary unpopularity it risks. When Mr Ma does try to appeal to Taiwanese who make up the island’s broad political centre, it often backfires with his party’s core supporters. Following public grumbles that retired civil servants, teachers and ex-servicemen were a privileged group, the cabinet announced plans to cut more than $300m in year-end bonuses, affecting around 381,000. The trouble was, veterans are among the KMT’s most fervent backers. Now some threaten to take to the streets in protest and deprive the KMT of their votes until the plan is scrapped. Meanwhile, Mr Ma’s clean image has been sullied by the indictment of the cabinet secretary-general for graft.
Cracks are starting to grow in the KMT façade. Recently Sean Lien, a prominent politician, criticised Mr Ma’s economic policies, saying that any politician in office during this time of sluggish growth was at best a “master of a beggar clan”—implying a country of paupers.
But the next election is four years away, and presidential hopefuls will not try to oust or even outshine Mr Ma anytime soon. After all, they will not want to take responsibility for the country’s economic problems. Nothing suggests Mr Ma’s main policies will change (or that they should), but his credibility is draining by the day.
資料來源:
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21566657-former-heart-throb-loses-his-shine-ma-bumbler
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